Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
