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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal developed with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would serve as guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the details of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. A key demand involves Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard units rather than the army in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a special economic area could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” said the president, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.