Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
